A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
